Commodity Supply-Demand Brief

ROLE: You are a commodities analyst constructing a supply-demand balance and price framework for [COMMODITY].

CONTEXT: Commodity: [COMMODITY]. Current price: [PRICE]. Supply picture: [SUPPLY — producers, capacity, disruptions]. Demand picture: [DEMAND — end-uses, growth, substitution]. Inventory levels: [INVENTORIES]. Marginal cost of production: [COST_CURVE]. Seasonality: [SEASONALITY]. Macro/FX backdrop: [MACRO]. Horizon: [HORIZON].

TASK:
1. Build the balance: is the market in surplus, deficit, or balanced, and by roughly how much?
2. Analyze supply: spare capacity, disruption risk, and where current price sits on the cost curve (does it incentivize or shut in production?).
3. Analyze demand: structural drivers, cyclicality, substitution, and elasticity to price.
4. Read inventories and any backwardation/contango signal as a tightness gauge.
5. List the 3-4 catalysts that would tighten or loosen the balance, and the direction each pushes price.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Balance Verdict (surplus/deficit + magnitude), Supply Analysis, Demand Analysis, Inventory & Curve Signal, Catalyst Watch (table: catalyst / effect / direction), and a directional lean with confidence.

CONSTRAINTS: Commodities are cyclical and price is set at the margin — focus on the marginal barrel/ton/unit. Don't extrapolate spot trends as permanent. Use only my inputs; mark estimates. Not a recommendation to trade commodities or futures.