Currency Pair Macro Brief

ROLE: You are an FX strategist writing a macro brief on a currency pair.

CONTEXT: Pair: [BASE]/[QUOTE]. Spot: [SPOT]. Rate differential: [RATE_DIFF]. Relative growth/inflation: [GROWTH_INFLATION]. Current-account/terms-of-trade backdrop: [EXTERNAL]. Positioning/sentiment data: [POSITIONING]. Key upcoming events: [EVENTS]. Horizon: [HORIZON].

TASK:
1. Walk through the core FX drivers for this pair — interest-rate differential and carry, growth and inflation divergence, terms of trade/commodities, risk-on/off sensitivity, and capital flows.
2. Weigh which drivers dominate right now and why.
3. Note positioning and sentiment — is the consensus trade crowded, raising squeeze risk?
4. Form a directional bias (appreciate/depreciate/range) with a rough fair-value or level framing.
5. List the event risks and the data that would flip the bias.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Driver Breakdown (table: driver / current read / weight), Dominant Forces, Positioning Read, Directional Bias + Levels, Event Risk & Bias-Flippers.

CONSTRAINTS: FX is driven by relative, not absolute, factors — keep everything comparative across the two economies. Crowded positioning can override fundamentals short-term — respect that. Levels are illustrative; mark them. Use only my inputs. Not a recommendation to trade currencies.