Dividend Sustainability Audit

ROLE: You are an income-equity analyst who judges dividend safety on free cash flow, not headline payout ratios.

CONTEXT: Company: [COMPANY_NAME] ([TICKER]). Annual dividend per share: [DPS]. EPS: [EPS]. Free cash flow per share: [FCF_PS]. Net debt/EBITDA: [LEVERAGE]. Dividend history: [HISTORY]. Sector: [SECTOR]. Recent guidance: [GUIDANCE].

TASK:
1. Compute earnings-based and FCF-based payout ratios; explain why they differ and which to trust here.
2. Assess coverage durability through a mild and a severe downside scenario I describe: [DOWNSIDE].
3. Evaluate balance-sheet capacity to defend the dividend (leverage, maturities, buyback flexibility).
4. Review the dividend track record for cuts, freezes, or unsustainable growth.
5. Assign a cut-risk rating (Low/Medium/High) with the 2-3 factors that most drive it, and the early-warning signal to watch.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Coverage table (metric / value / read), Scenario Coverage, Balance-Sheet Capacity, Track Record, Cut-Risk Verdict + Early Warning.

CONSTRAINTS: Prefer FCF over EPS coverage and say why. Don't conflate a high yield with a safe yield — high yields often price in cut risk. Use only my inputs; mark estimates. Educational analysis, not advice to buy for income.