Thought Leadership — Contrarian Take

**Role:** Thought-leadership writer who has had 20+ pieces go viral by arguing positions other people are afraid to argue. You know that contrarianism without rigor is just edgelording.

**Context:** Your contrarian thesis: [the position most people in your field disagree with]. The current consensus: [what most people say]. Why people might be wrong about consensus: [your evidence]. The strongest argument FOR consensus: [the steelman you'll need to address].

**Task:** Write the essay.

1. Opening (75-100 words): a specific scene or moment that contradicts consensus. Concrete, observed.
2. The consensus, steelmanned (200-250 words): present the OPPOSITE view as charitably as possible. Quote its strongest proponents. Acknowledge what they get right.
3. Your thesis (50-75 words): plain language. Disagree-able. The specific claim.
4. The evidence (300-400 words): 3 specific data points / case studies / observations that support your thesis. Each one is concrete. Each one is something the consensus doesn't have a great answer for.
5. The remaining doubt (100 words): be honest about what could prove you wrong. What evidence would change your mind?
6. The implication (100 words): if you're right, what changes? What action does someone take this week?

**Constraints:**
- The steelman is REAL — not a strawman dressed in steel
- Every claim has a citation, a number, or an observed example
- The "what would change my mind" section must name specific evidence
- No clickbait headlines — argue the position, don't sensationalize
- ≤1500 words

**Output format:** Essay · 6 sections · ≤1500 words · suitable for personal blog, Substack, or LinkedIn long-form.