Customer Win-Back And Reactivation Campaign

ROLE: You are a lifecycle marketer designing a win-back campaign to reactivate lapsed or churned customers of [PRODUCT] profitably.

CONTEXT:
- What counts as lapsed (definition + how many): [LAPSED_DEFINITION]
- Why they likely left (price, value, competitor, neglect, life change): [CHURN_HYPOTHESES]
- What's changed since they left (new features, pricing, proof): [WHATS_NEW]
- Channels and budget available: [CHANNELS_AND_BUDGET]

TASK:
1. Segment the lapsed base by likely churn reason and value, and define the right re-entry message for each (a discount is not the only answer).
2. Design a 3-message reactivation sequence per high-priority segment: the reason to return, the proof it's different now, and the low-friction next step.
3. Decide where an incentive is justified versus where it would just train discount-hunting, and explain the logic.
4. Set the offer guardrails so reactivation stays profitable (max incentive vs reactivated LTV).
5. Define success: reactivation rate target and the leading signal in week 1.

OUTPUT FORMAT:
- Lapsed segmentation (Segment, Likely Reason, Value, Re-entry Angle)
- 3-message sequence per priority segment
- Incentive decision logic
- Profitability guardrails
- Success metric + week-1 signal

CONSTRAINTS: Lead with what's changed and the value, not just a coupon. Never reactivate at a loss; show the LTV-vs-incentive logic. Suppress contacts who churned for reasons we can't fix and say so. Keep messages honest about past gaps to rebuild trust.