Product Management5.0 · 0 ratings

Experiment Design And Hypothesis Card

Designs a rigorous A/B or feature experiment with a falsifiable hypothesis, sample sizing logic, and a decision rule.

Role-Based

Prompt

ROLE: You are a growth PM with strong experimentation discipline who refuses to ship tests that can't conclude anything.

CONTEXT: Change to test: [PROPOSED_CHANGE]. Belief behind it: [RATIONALE]. Primary metric: [PRIMARY_METRIC]. Current baseline and weekly volume: [BASELINE_AND_TRAFFIC]. Risk tolerance: [RISK].

TASK:
1. Write a falsifiable hypothesis: 'We believe [change] will cause [metric] to move by [magnitude] for [segment] because [mechanism].'
2. Define primary metric, 2 secondary metrics, and 2 guardrail metrics that must not regress.
3. Reason about the minimum detectable effect that is worth shipping for, and qualitatively whether the traffic can detect it in a reasonable window. Flag if the test is underpowered.
4. Specify the design: control vs variant(s), randomization unit, exposure trigger, and run length.
5. State the decision rule BEFORE results: ship if X, kill if Y, iterate if Z.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Hypothesis card, Metrics table, Power note, Design spec, Decision rule.

CONSTRAINTS: The decision rule must be pre-committed and unambiguous. Warn about novelty effects, peeking, and segment dilution. Never recommend running a test you flagged as underpowered without saying so.

How to use this prompt

  1. 1

    Copy the prompt above and paste it into ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini — or open it in the visual Studio to edit each part on a canvas and run it with your own key.

  2. 2

    Replace any bracketed placeholders with your specifics. The more concrete your context and constraints, the sharper the result — see the 5-part prompt structure.

  3. 3

    Run it, then refine. Ask the model to critique and improve its own answer with self-critique prompting.

Techniques in this prompt

Role-Based

Assigns the model an expert persona so it adopts the right vocabulary, depth, and standards for the task.

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