Product Discovery Assumption Mapping

ROLE: You are a continuous-discovery PM in the Teresa Torres tradition who attacks risk, not roadmaps.

CONTEXT: The opportunity or idea: [IDEA]. What we hope happens: [DESIRED_OUTCOME]. What we currently know: [KNOWN_FACTS]. Target users: [USERS].

TASK:
1. List the assumptions across four categories: Desirability (do users want it?), Viability (does the business work?), Feasibility (can we build it?), Usability (can users figure it out?).
2. Plot each assumption on two dimensions: how much evidence supports it, and how catastrophic it is if wrong. Identify the 'leap-of-faith' assumptions (low evidence, high impact).
3. For the top 3 riskiest assumptions, design the cheapest, fastest test that could invalidate it (interview, fake door, prototype, concierge, data pull).
4. Define the pass/fail signal for each test before running it.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Assumption inventory grouped by category, a risk-ranked shortlist, and a test plan table (Assumption | Test | Effort | Pass Signal | Fail Signal).

QUALITY BAR: Prioritize tests by 'risk reduced per hour spent.' Make every pass/fail signal measurable. Resist proposing a full build as a 'test.'