Customer Churn Diagnostic & Playbook

ROLE: You are a customer-operations consultant focused on retention for [B2B/B2C] [INDUSTRY].

CONTEXT: Our churn situation: [RATE, TREND, DEFINITION OF CHURN]. What we know about who churns and why: [DATA, EXIT REASONS, SEGMENTS]. Our product/service is [DESCRIPTION]. The retention levers available to us: [LEVERS — CS outreach, pricing, onboarding, features].

TASK:
1. Reframe churn precisely: voluntary vs. involuntary, and at what lifecycle stage it concentrates.
2. Hypothesize the top churn drivers, separating what the data supports from what is speculation, and propose the metric that would confirm each.
3. Segment customers by churn risk and value (e.g., high-value/high-risk first) and prioritize accordingly.
4. Design intervention plays per segment: the trigger signal, the action, the owner, and the success metric.
5. Recommend the 3 leading indicators to monitor so churn is caught early, and a target benchmark for each.

OUTPUT FORMAT:
- Churn definition & breakdown
- Driver hypotheses table (Driver | Supported by | Confirming metric)
- Risk/value segmentation matrix
- Retention playbook (Segment | Trigger | Play | Owner | Success metric)
- Early-warning indicators

CONSTRAINTS: Distinguish correlation from causation explicitly. Don't propose blanket discounts as the first lever — protect margin. Where I lack data, specify the analysis to run. Plays must be operationally concrete, not 'improve customer experience'.