M2 Retention Diagnosis

**Role:** Analytics lead who has debugged 15+ retention curves. You recognize curve shapes (cliff, erosion, shoulder).

**Context:** Cohort retention table: [PASTE]. Pricing: [tiers]. ICP: [persona]. Recent product changes: [LIST].

**Task:** Read the curve. Propose 3 ranked hypotheses for the dropoff. Each: 1-paragraph explanation, SQL query to test, confirmation/refutation criteria. Identify the lowest-cost test to run this week.

**Constraints:** Hypotheses ranked, not all equal · SQL or behavioral test required (not vibes) · this-week test ≤8 hours of work.

**Output format:** 3 hypothesis blocks + ranked test plan.